> Climategate, what is going on?

article image
Climategate, what is going on?
Last updated 5:47 am, Wednesday 4th April 2012

Climategate, Global Warming, emails, the 'hockey stick',data manipulation and Copenhagen...

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past ten years, you will have no problem recognizing the term 'Global Warming' and what it implies; i.e. that human beings have somehow through their polluting industrialization put enough warming chemicals into the atmosphere to put the normal environmental processes into an upward tail spin of increasing temperature.

The trouble is that this may be right, but some of the original science behind the whole theory (and it is a theory, it cannot logically be completely proven until it does happen or not) is becoming discredited and looking rather 'shonky' (nice Australian slang for completely broken). So whats going on? (Note: the video below is a rather soundbite focused, but indicates the significance of what has happened)

Lack of core data availability and data 'selection'

It appears that a fair chunk of the founding papers behind the Global Warming theory were created by a set of climate scientists using sets of data which all overlapped in their usage of one particular set of data, namely tree ring growth data from the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia. This data set showed pronounced and dramatic uptick in temperatures. Although until recently other academics were not able to get their hands on this core data to reproduce the results using independent techniques. This lack of peer review has only come light due to one Canadian mathematicians attempt to reproduce the results.

Also there appears to problems in transparency and repeatability with other core data sets, that other scientists have often used as the basis for their models as well. Quoting Judy Curry (full article reference at the bottom):

The HADCRU surface climate dataset and the paleoclimate dataset that has gone into the various “hockeystick” analyses stand out as lacking such transparency. Much of the paleoclimate data and metadata has become available only because of continued public pressure from Steve McIntyre. Datasets that were processed and developed decades ago and that are now regarded as essential elements of the climate data record often contain elements whose raw data or metadata were not preserved (this appears to be the case with HADCRUT).

Basically is no longer possible to go back to the core data and reproduce the models independently.

The Climategate Scandalous emails

The other 'smoking gun' in this story is the fact that a possible hacker managed to break into the CRU (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia) and download ten years worth of emails between the core set of academics behind the Global Warming theory (we say possible hacker, as given the way the emails have been selected, it could indicate also an inside job via a whistle-blower). These are on display for anybody to have a read through currently and we advise you to have a look as well. Apart from the usual academic banter and competitiveness there appears to be an underlying 'bias' towards supporting their theories at all costs, rather than objective and clear consideration of all the facts in play.

Also made available was the source code and comments to some of the models they were running, which shows what looks like a lot of 'forcing' of data to produce the required results (as in overly selective use of or undue adjustment to data).


A bit of a 'right wing' video, but focus on the core source code comments.

So why all the fuss?

If these were just a group of climate change researchers working on their own, it would be not that much of an issue BUT due to the following facts:
  • CRU takes raw data as measured from various sources, processes and 'cleans' it and makes it available for monthly updated download on their FTP site for other climate change academics to use. So, if CRU is found to be in error, then all these dependent academics must be considered in error as well.
  • CRU processed data is used to calibrate satellite proxy temperature readings, so if CRU is found to be in error, then all usage of said calibrated satellite proxy temperature data readings will be in error also.
  • CRU data is one of four key data sets used by the majority of climate change researchers - 2 ground based, 2 satellite data based (to which said calibrations have been applied) - in essence up to 75% of the climate data in use is at risk of being shown to be invalid if CRU are found to be in error.
  • These 4 data sets have been used by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) as core data in their research and conclusions - so if the CRU are found to be in error, the IPCC conclusions are also likely to be in error.
So the potential is that  a large slice of the significant and noteworthy research undertaken by the climate researchers is at risk of being shown to be faulty.

The other problem with this is how it has effected research into other areas of climate. In essence the 'success' of this particular branch of climatic research has resulted in more and more focus on it - starving other branches of climatic research of much needed funds. So if there was alternative evidence (one way or another) to be found concerning the climate, that has been essentially silenced. So by this 'over focus' on one avenue of inquiry the whole balance of the validity of all the research comes into question.

The other problem with all of this is such research is not just an academic exercise, it has become the Rosetta stone of a whole political and business movement; which is in the process of getting us all to sign up to carbon trading as a way to solve the man made climate change problem. There may well be man made climate change, unfortunately, given what the CRU data has shown, it would be most unwise to be committing the whole planet to this unless the science behind has been shown to be rigorous and as exact as possible. We at least owe this to all the other people and causes that could have benefited instead; its a very large opportunity cost indeed to be spending if we have got it wrong. Its a bit like giving the SETI institute several billions of dollars to spend on preparing for the arrival of ET, you would consider that a 'bad spend'; yet given the above currently they have a better chance of finding ET then we have of working out what the climate is doing given the potentially poor science to date.

BTW: This article is being updated on an almost daily basis in the links section at the end, here we put significant events as they occur to save you having to search through it all.

Update (14th Jan 2010)

It looks like NASA has been caught 'cherry picking' weather stations to create artificially warmed temperature records.

Update (22nd Jan 2010)

UK Parliament to investigate ClimateGate and CRU data issues!

Update (3rd March 2010)

UK press coverage of parliamentary review. Does not seem to be going at all well for the CRU and Prof Jones; reasonable chance they might be found at fault it seems.

ClimateGate Book now available

Climategate: The Crutape Letters (Volume 1) by Steve Mosher and Thomas W. Fuller is now available and goes into exhaustive detailed analysis of the CRU emails and data files.

The Climategate scandal covered from beginning to end--from 'Hide the Decline' to the current day. Written by two authors who were on the scene--Steven Mosher and Tom Fuller--Climategate takes you behind that scene and shows what happened and why. For those who have heard that the emails were taken out of context--we provide that context and show it is worse when context is provided. For those who have heard that this is a tempest in a teacup--we show why it will swamp the conventional wisdom on climate change. And for those who have heard that this scandal is just 'boys being boys'--well, boy. It's as seamy as what happened on Wall Street.

Main Stream Media picking up the story (2nd Feb 2010)

It looks like, in the UK at least, that the Main Stream Media (as in traditional print media, rather than online blogs and forums) are starting to cover this side of the discussions. See here for 'amazed' online coverage of this fact (i.e. coverage in The Independent and The Guardian who were previously ignoring the 'anti' side).

ClimateGate v2.0 - the NASA files

Hot off the press - see The NASA Files: U.S. Climate Science as Corrupt as CRU (PJM Exclusive — Part One) - wow...

Other thoughts

Something which requires looking into is how statistical methods on confidence are being used in these models. Basically, when you measure something there is a possibility of two errors creeping into the measurement:
  • Measurement error itself, i.e how accurate the equipment or process is in actually getting a valid reading
  • Rounding error, this occurs when a reading is taken to certain number of decimal places when the 'real' value itself has a much higher accuracy (the car is doing 79 km/h compared to the car actually doing 79.99 km/h).
So a measurement or data point in a series actually represents part of a possible range of equivalent values of which the measurement is but one. The other thing to remember is that the underlying error rate in data is not something you can 'factor out', it carries through the model all the way to the final results. You can apply averaging across a set of measurements to improve accuracy but this only works if:
  1. The set of measurements occur in the same environment and on the same equipment.
  2. Any corrected values (like transcription errors, etc) are factored out of the error calculations (you cannot assume your correction of the transcription error is actually correct; it could be out of 10x, out by 10+/-, 4 read as 9, 6 read as 0, transposition, etc).
  3. Averaging across a time series carries up the derived standard deviation of the series with it through its usage.
Also depending on how the data gets used, in certain cases the error rates can sum; in the same way being constantly 1% degree off in a heading out at sea can result you being way off course in a short time... See this paper for a more detailed analysis of the possible pitfalls with models.

Note: this is not say this wasn't being done, rather if any one part of the statistical data processing is in error it effectively calls into doubt the whole. This is why this could be so damaging as the CRU provided monthly temperature records to a whole group of academics based on processing they did from a large set of sources around the world.

Also not mentioned in most of the discussions online is the effect of 'joining' two data sets together and what that means for confidence and accuracy. For instance it appears that the tree ring data after 1960 diverged from the direct temperature measures, so the real temperature measurements were used for that period. Question is, does this mean the same 'significance' in the model was given to the earlier proxy data as the later real data? Suspect this will only be answered when statisticians and engineering modeling specialists work through the models.

Conclusion

What is there to conclude? Well
  1. The press, big business, pots of money, vested interest and academia just do not mix well in this space;
  2. We only have ourselves to blame - if more people actually stood up and asked simple questions like 'why', 'can you prove it?' and 'has this actually been really independently peer reviewed?' we might not have got ourselves in this mess.
  3. For such a critical area of research the peer review process as operated has been shown to be inadequate. A much higher degree of reviewing and disclosure must be enacted.
  4. Technology, has to a certain extent, made this situation possible. Think about it, your average desktop computer has now the same computing power as a 10 year old mainframe computer. What this means for running climatic models and simulations is that you can either go more detailed, or run a model many times in the same total time. This makes it that bit easier to 'tweak and tune' models and simulations to get the results you want or subconsciously want.. See the links below on the code comments to see examples of this effect.
  5. In an ideal world all the originally measured source data should be made freely publicly available. i.e. the data before any adjustment. Also information provided per data source on error rates. Also a 'standard' should be created for indexing this data (Google or Yahoo up to the job?).
  6. Similarly the adjusted data should be made available to the public. Although there will need to be careful 'control scope' analysis done to prevent any one data set becoming too dependent upon other data sets for adjustments and corrections - ideally there should be at least 3 'vertical' stacks of climatic data that are totally independent of each other - this way errors or bias in any one will not be transfered into the majority; making it easier to spot.
  7. In an ideal world all publicly funded climate models source code should be hosted on public open source project sites. Thereby ensuring complete transparency and traceability.
  8. Something is going on with our environment, whether that is a good thing or not is still unknown.
  9. Is managing the CO2 levels really the right climatic lever to tweaking? If a lot of the models have been fixating on this as the way to manage the problem and those models are based on the work above that is in doubt... This really all needs a complete disclosure and reanalysis to find out what is really going on. For instance Nitrous Oxide is 298 times a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, accounting for 6% of the greenhouse effect (we produce 30% of the N2O), yet you hear absolutely nothing about this. It also attacks the ozone layer.
So still keeping doing what you can to reduce your adverse effect on the environment, on the outside chance that they are right (plus cutting down your environmental pollution is a good thing anyways, you don't need a climate model to work that out); but do keep an open mind on this whole situation. The last thing we and the planet need is people jumping to the wrong conclusions for the wrong reasons; there is not much slack for the taking if we are wrong.

What can I do about it?

We hope this has got you thinking and wondering about the science and the motivations in this space. We suggest you just do the simple thing of discussing this with your fellow humans; then, like us, you will be utterly amazed by the almost total lack of awareness on this issue in the public at large. Remember, you don't need a PhD to follow this story, the science is just another 'tool' being used (or misused) by people to their own ends. The onus is on the scientists to be held equally accountable to you as anybody else.

Why is this on here?

I've noticed some people have been commenting on other blogs (thanks for the links and keep them coming) that it is strange for such an article to appear on an Eco focused website. The actual real strangeness to me perhaps is that no other Eco focused websites seem to be doing the same. The 'mission statement' behind this site is to provide the facts and educate people on how to be more eco friendly without it costing the Earth (in all senses) - so to me this coverage is right in its remit. Have a look at the other articles to see what I mean.

(BTW This site is not funded by any denialist or pro/anti AGW groups - we just want to get to the facts in this issue and keep people informed).

Next page: Related Articles, references and blow by blow coverage.

Related Articles

ClimateGate I & II Search service

If you want to search and read the emails from Climategate I & II look here.

Additional reading

The list below is in date order (i.e. the newest at the bottom). Articles and info from both sides of the coverage are included; zero info or 'hot air' coverage should be excluded.

Is CO2 the cause - presentations by Prof Bob Carter

Well worth watching, covers the whole area. Prof Bob Carter talks during recent visit to NZ

Humour


Open Source software


Related Tags: global warming, climatic research, climategate, climate change

Climategate, what is going on?
5 star(4.73 out of 5) from 51 ratings. Rate Now!
Stars: 0 1 2 3 4 5 

Comment

Comments left

  • Dave W. said:

    Well written article. The danger of the "science" these men have been doing is that it "poisons" and corrupts all of the data and conclusions downstream. Science is never as "fixed" as they would have had us all believe.

    By bullying opposing views, and taking steps to silence critics and hide data, they have shown that, most likely, there is something VERY wrong with the data.

    Because of the magnitute of the steps being considered, we MUST go back to step one and do NOTHING until the data is reconstructed and then analyzed. (In an open and transparent manner....)

    I appreciate the way the author of this article does not rant or scream, but merely states the facts and conclusions in a calm and reasoned manner. One cannot say the same thing of the "Doomers" that promo te Global Warming...

    ON Tue, 22 Dec 09, 3:27am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Twawki said:

    Great post - well done. Linked you on my blog

    ON Wed, 23 Dec 09, 12:24pm probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Jt said:

    A pleasant surprise on a green blog, balanced and objective. I've added you to my favorites.

    ON Wed, 6 Jan 10, 8:17pm probably from Canada  Reply to this comment

  • Guillermo Gefaell said:

    I have been in the sceptics (realists?) side for a long time and post regularly on the subject of anthropogenic CO2 global warming at http://www.boatdesign.net/forums/open-discussion/what-do-we-think-about-climate-change-21390.html

    I am most pleased to see such a balanced article in a Eco-site. Most encouraging. I have added your site to my favourites. Thanks a lot.

    Cheers.

    ON Wed, 6 Jan 10, 8:52pm probably from Spain  Reply to this comment

  • David Cooke said:

    This is the clearest statement of the problems with the IPCC model of global warming that I've found, after following the issue on the net for weeks. Some others who have made the same points can be criticised for their right-wing viewpoint or their aggressive tone. But I can recommend your page to my lefty-greenie colleagues without a blush.

    ON Thu, 7 Jan 10, 3:33am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Mkurbo said:

    Great post - finally some balance on such an important issue ! Thanks

    ON Fri, 8 Jan 10, 4:34am probably from United States  Reply to this comment

  • Tomfp said:

    I am astonished to see such candour on a site like this. You stand in marked and admirable contrast to the wagon-circling and name-calling that characterises ALL other green-leaning responses to Climategate. This would merely be a souce of amusement to sceptics, were it not for the fact that

    good science and good scientists have been driven out by bad science and bad scientists,

    A lot of (quite) well-meaning people have given their hearts to this fraud,

    We nearly ended up with another casino market trading in a commodity given an arbitrary value by an argument whose falsehood was bound to emerge eventually – a recipe for another GFC.

    Vast sums have already been misspent on this fraud, and could have been better spent growing the world economy and devising alternatives to fossil-fuels,

    Last but not least, none of this proves that the climate isn’t capable of dumping on us, in ways that we can’t resist. Learning to live with such episodes requires healthy, growing economies, not ones which have dissipated their wealth investing in a 21st Century tulip-bulb market. The current N hemisphere winter a case in point.

    I posted the following in response to one of George Monbiot's "what will it take to convince you..." laments - I hope you will allow space for it: " 1. Remember Occam's Razor - that the simplest explanation for all the known facts is preferable to other more complex ones, no matter that all may work.

    2. Remember Einstein “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” Consensus in science, far from "settling" it, ought to inspire at least as much suspicion as it does confidence. So for sceptics, banging on about 90% or 95% just deepens our suspicions. Stop it.

    3. Remember Popper - produce your theories in a form that can be falsified by experiment repeatable by all. Even if you yourself cannot understand the experiments, be sure that both method and data are freely available to others who can.

    4. If someone objects that data they are using is proprietary and cannot be shared, reply politely that in that case it cannot possibly be used to justify expensive public policy, nor public funding - then move on.

    5. Lose the condescending, this-is-for-your-own-good tone of the priestly classes - it might give you and the choir you preach to a warm feeling inside, but it's no substitute for scientific rigour, and it just makes you sound like latter-day druids.

    6. If within these constraints (all of which, except perhaps for the last, have served genuine science well for a long time) you can persuade us that the climate should worry us a jot more than, say, the problem of hip displasia in overbred spaniels, you can go back to being as smug, bombastic and condescending as you like - you will have earned it.

    Best of luck. But I think you've got a long way to go "

    ON Thu, 14 Jan 10, 12:02am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • David S said:

    Excellent article - well done. At last someone is making the point that there is more to being green than ranting about CO2 and cap-and-trade. The saddest thing about the whole saga is the diversion of attention and resources away from all the real, pressing environmental issues for which there are practical, achievable mitigation strategies. Also depressing is the way opinions seem to be following the left-right political divide - I am offended by the idea that because I do not trust the CRU data and Mann's manipulations, this makes me a Bush-supporting neocon.

    ON Thu, 28 Jan 10, 3:00pm probably from United Kingdom  Reply to this comment

  • Ed Darrell said:

    What two or three major assertions of global warming scientists are called into question by Hadley having its e-mails hacked?

    What research backs up your claim that these parts of science are now in question?

    ON Sat, 30 Jan 10, 10:31pm probably from United States  Reply to this comment

  • Theskyisfalling said:

    Great article Keith. Thanks for the comment on my blog (which is how I found you here). I'll be doing a post to this excellent pieve this week. Great series of links you have there too by the way.

    ON Mon, 1 Feb 10, 9:49am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Mrpete said:

    Great article! One significant mistake: there's no evidence the emails/data were "hacked"; now evidence points to inside leak.

    Someone asked about the impact of all this on the science. Several impacts, including:

    1) Scientific process called into question for this whole arena of science

    2) What papers have NOT been published that would falsify claims made, and what papers HAVE been published that should not have been. (i.e. gatekeeping impact)

    3) Clearly, we can't be so confident about the "scientific consensus." In fact, the realistic answer is provably worse than we've been led to believe. Recognizing the IPCC process is designed to ONLY consider CO2 impact and not other possibilities, even that impact is far more uncertain than presented. A paper is available showing the scientific LOSU (Level Of Understanding) was mostly as UNcertain as possible in a majority of topics, at the end of scientific input to the latest report. But by the time the non-science editors got done with it, ALL of that uncertainty had been removed! Google: ipcc losu mckitrick, then see Table 1 on p11]

    ON Thu, 4 Feb 10, 3:10am probably from United States  Reply to this comment

    • Eco Guy said:

      Agreed, updated to cover off the insider case (although we still do not know for sure).

      ON Thu, 4 Feb 10, 3:19am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Daniel Fierro said:

    what do you think about this .. when even your President knows Global Warming is a scam!

    ON Thu, 4 Feb 10, 4:16am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

    • Eco Guy said:

      Erm, he is not 'my' president

      The video to be honest could be taken both ways - we need to see the larger context to know for sure.

      ON Thu, 4 Feb 10, 4:16am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Mcharris said:

    This is a wonderful resource which I will be linking to from my sites. I would kindly say that most people are 'green' at heart and would willingly do things at the local level to clean up the planet, they just don't want UNELECTED entities taxing us to kingdom come and taking away national Sovereignty in the process. Neither do they want our politicians signing away our future and that of our children, to the UN. We are Australian..... and proud of it.

    I am happy for people to visit my site http://just-me-in-t.site40.net/index.php where I try to show what is happening in the ugly world of the THEORY of AGW. To me it is a theory as it is unproven. Sadly it has moved out of the realm of science and right into the realm of politics and big business. If there is a dollar to be made to can be assurred there will be a few crooks involved.

    Thanks again for putting all the links and stories together.

    ON Sat, 6 Feb 10, 5:50am probably from Australia  Reply to this comment

  • Roger Dee said:

    Oh! Thank goodness. Your article is a breath of fresh air, and you have also restored my faith in environmentalism. Thank you very much.

    I am AGW sceptic, and I have been turning sour towards AGW propaganda, green activists, left wing politics etc. For months I have been wearing the “denier” mantle on many CIF forums and indulging in tribal behaviour, mainly because I have grave concerns about the political and economic implications of the current hysteria and also because I hate being browbeaten, insulted and ridiculed just because I have my own opinions.

    Having said all that, I’m not sure my lifestyle qualifies as typical of the “denier” stereotype. I live in a small holding in the English countryside and I grow as much of my own food as I can. I try to drive as little as possible, preferring to walk (I need the exercise). If possible I take my motorcycle in preference to my car. Not because of carbon, it just makes sense to conserve fuel when possible. Also, I have installed a ground source heat pump to provide my heating and hot water, and am currently saving up for a 20Kw free standing wind turbine so that I can produce my own electricity (I’ve got the land to do it without annoying anyone). Again, not because of carbon, it just makes perfect sense both environmentally and economically.

    So, perhaps I’m not a typical “denier” any more than you are a typical “greenie” and maybe there is hope of both camps finding common ground. What a wonderfully optimistic thought. I shall be following your website with great interest and a more balanced attitude. Thanks again.

    ON Thu, 18 Feb 10, 12:28pm probably from United Kingdom  Reply to this comment

  • Steve Jones said:

    Well done EcoWho. This site is what being green is truly all about. Keep up the good work.

    ON Fri, 25 Nov 11, 9:00pm probably from United Kingdom  Reply to this comment

Add Coment

Got a question or comment about this?

Find what you were looking for?.. Not quite what you expected?.. Got a question to ask people?
Share your thoughts and use the form below to post a public comment right on this page.


Simple HTML is supported i.e <b> <i> etc. Excessive inline URL's, spam, ANY ads or swearing is blocked/removed quickly. youtube URL's get embedded.

Back to the Articles Index Page   Visit our Facebook page

EcoWho RSS News Feed