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by Steve McIntyre
  • Recently, while re-examining PAGES2K, the current paleoclimate darling, I noticed that PAGES2K(2019) reverted to a variation of the Twisted Tree Heartrot Hill (Yukon) [TTHH] tree ring chronology that...
  • Today’s article is about one of the D’Arrigo et al 2006 datasets. D’Arrigo et al 2006, then under submission, had been cited in drafts of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. I had...
  • MBH98 used three Jacoby tree ring chronologies from Alaska: Four Twelve (ak031) – discussed here, Arrigetch (ak032) and Sheenjek (ak033). Sheenjek will be discussed in this article. In our compilation...
  • Four Twelve (Alaska) was one of the 11 Jacoby and D’Arrigo series used in MBH98. In our original 2003 article, we observed that the MBH98 version of this chronology differed substantially from...
  • We’ve long discussed the bias imparted by ex post selection of data depending on whether it went up in the 20th century.  Likening such after-the-fact selection to a drug study carried out...
  • In numerous ancient Climate Audit posts, I observed that all MBH98 operations were linear and that the step reconstructions were therefore linear combinations of proxies, the coefficients of which...
  • In today’s post, I will report on some excellent work on MBH98 by Hampus Soderqvist, who discovered an important but previously unknown Mike’s Nature Trick: Mann’s list of proxies...
  • Continued from here. The Dirty Laundry residual datasets for AD1000, AD1400 and AD1600 were each calculated using Mann’s “sparse” instrumental dataset, but the resultant sigmas and...
  • Continued from previous post link. The data associated with the Climategate “dirty laundry” email had other interesting information on Mann’s calculation of confidence intervals...
  • As the date approached for the Mann-Steyn/Simberg libel trial, I’ve been reviewing my files on MBH98 and MBH99. It’s about 15 years since I last looked at these issues.  One of the most...
  • SM: This article by JD Ohio was submitted and briefly online on February 23, 2018, but, for some reason that I don’t recall, was taken offline. In any event, as Mann’s ancient libel case...
  • One of the central claims of The Trick, if not the most central claim, was that “hiding the decline” was nothing more than an inopportune phrase about a single diagram...
  • Two major new BBC programs, The Trick and the Hack That Changed The World, re-visit 2009 Climategate events on the eve of UK hosting the most recent international climate get-together...
  • On October 18, 2021, BBC (producer Owen Sheers) aired a “conspiracy thriller” entitled The Trick – though a more complete title would have been The Trick… to Hide the Trick...
  • Next, the PAGES2019 0-30N latband. Their CPS reconstruction (CPS) for the 0-30N latband (extracted from the global reconstruction) looks almost exactly the same as reconstructions for the 0-30S and...
  • In a Climategate email. Keith Briffa famously sneered at Michael Mann’s claim that a temperature reconstruction could represent a hemisphere, including the tropics, by regressing a “few...
  • The 30-60N latitude band gets lots of attention in paleoclimate collections – probably more proxies than the rest of the world combined. The 30-60S latitude band is exactly the same size, but...
  • About 20% of the PAGES 2019 proxies are 50 Asian tree ring chronologies, all of which were originally published as chronologies in PAGES (2013). At the time, none of these series (and certainly not...
  • Although climate scientists keep telling that defects in their “hockey stick” proxy reconstructions don’t matter – that it doesn’t matter whether they use data upside...
  • Mar 2, 2021. This post was written in 2015 but, for some reason, I didn’t publish it at the time.  Seems just as valid today as when it was written.   Esper et al 2012, Orbital Forcing...
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