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- The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 4, converting observations to ECS Fri, 28 Apr 23, 3:00amBy Andy May In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they mean, especially those reported in the latest IPCC report,…
- The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity? Thu, 27 Apr 23, 3:00amBy Andy May In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they mean, especially those reported in the latest IPCC report,…
- The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds Wed, 26 Apr 23, 3:00amBy Andy May The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W/m2 from year-to-year, according to CERES satellite data.[1] AR6 tells us that cloud…
- The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 1 Tue, 25 Apr 23, 3:00amBy Andy May The climate sensitivity to CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) is arguably the most important number in the climate change debate. AR6[1] claims the sensitivity, which they…
- Transient Climate Response from Observations 1979-2022 Sat, 10 Dec 22, 1:00amThe best estimate of TCR based on CMIP6 models (the red line in Fig.1) is 1.6K / 2*CO2, following the cited paper.
- Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models Fri, 21 Aug 20, 7:00amI note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions...
- The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity Tue, 24 Apr 18, 5:54pmA guest post by Nic Lewis Judith Curry and I have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate There has been considerable scientific investigation of the magnitude of the...
- Climate Insensitivity Sun, 24 May 15, 9:21amGuest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been wanting to [take] another look at the relationship between net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes on the one hand and changes in temperature on the other...
- The Fatal Lure of Assumed Linearity Thu, 19 Dec 13, 1:03pmGuest Post by Willis Eschenbach In climate science, linearity is the order of the day. The global climate models are all based around the idea that in the long run, when we calculate the global temperature everything else...