uncertainty, Tag

  • The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray It’s been awhile since I have been so struck by an article that I felt moved...
  • How we fool ourselves Mon, 5 Oct 20, 4:30am
    by Judith Curry Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science. While I have been very busy, I have kept the Denizen’s entertained with threads on politics and cancel culture.  Lets face it, that...
  • PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again. Climate models...
  • Coronavirus uncertainty Fri, 20 Mar 20, 3:05am
    by Judith Curry My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty. I and my family are in isolation, in relatively comfortable, well-stocked and in safe circumstances (solar power with Tesla power wall).   My community (Reno...
  • by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal...
  • Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong...
  • Escape from model land Wed, 30 Oct 19, 7:06am
    by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson...
  • 12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections in light of error propagation and uncertainty analysis, freely...
  • By Nic Lewis The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper. Readers may recall that last autumn I wrote several article critiquing the Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study in Nature, which was...
  • Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on August 22, 2019 by curryja | by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available. A link to my new paper ‘Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?’ is provided...
  • by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available. A link to my new paper ‘Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?’ is provided here [worst case paper final (1)] A few words on the intended audience and...
  • Sarewitz’s Science Smörgåsbord Thu, 11 Jul 19, 7:00am
    Guest Essay by Kip Hansen   What is a smörgåsbord? And who is Sarewitz?  From the top, a smörgåsbord is “a buffet meal of various hot and cold hors d’oeuvres, salads, casserole dishes, meats, cheeses,...
  • by Judith Curry How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports.  And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate...
  • Climate’s uncertainty principle Wed, 8 May 19, 3:00am
    Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Blog, Climate Etc. by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action. Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on future climate boils down to an assessment of...
  • Climate’s uncertainty principle Tue, 7 May 19, 7:51am
    by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action. Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on future climate boils down to an assessment of a relevant cost-benefit ratio. That is, we need to put...
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