uncertainty, Tag

There are cycles within cycles, and by their very nature they can appear to keep reversing and they do affect the climate. If we took notice of them, we might be able to forecast when the Thames is likely to next ice over.

Climate change has become a secular religion, rife with dogma, heretics and moral-tribal communities. The secular religion of climate change raises concerns that are far more fundamental than the risks of bad policy.  At...

He also has peer-reviewed publications on the intelligent design myth, the science is philosophy myth, the noble savage myth, the human-caused global warming myth, and the academic STEM culture of sexual harassment myth.

…models are pushing further and further into the domain of the ‘terra incognita.

Tune in to the show for a review by the Dr. Curry herself. We'll also take a look at some of the silliest climate news of the week!

This is one book that is far different, with a difference that is important. It has been written by a real climate scientist.

.Tom Nelson Dr. Judith Curry is President and co-founder of CFAN. Following an influential career in academic research and administration, Curry founded CFAN to support the management of weather and…

The IPCC’s manufacture of consensus has done incalculable harm to climate science and the policy making that is informed by climate science.

What are daisy-chained probabilities? This type of scenario can be stated: “If this, and then this, and then if this then that.” The events have to take place in a specified order, each one having its own probability. 

To make the dicing example into true absolute measurement uncertainty, in which we give a stated value and its known uncertainty but do not (and cannot) know the actual (or true) value, we will place the dice inside a closed...

The mean found through use of the Central Limit Theorem cannot and will not be less uncertain than the uncertainty of the actual mean of original uncertain measurements themselves. 

It isn’t that there are two possible answers, it is that the answer could be as much as or as little as the “two possible values of the initial value” – between the one with the absolute uncertainty added and the...

Yet our result shows that official climatology’s conclusions, based as they are on the outputs of general-circulation models, are mere guesswork. They do not in any degree warrant or justify any action whatsoever to abate...

In short, what is the proper magnitude of the uncertainty associated with such routine daily temperature measurements?

Modern climate research commonly fails adequate recognition of three guiding principles about uncertainty.