Royal Society acknowledges significant uncertainly in climate predictions

By Eco Guy 4:54am 30th September 2010
A recent report from UK Royal Society (layman's guide to the science of climate change) has actually acknowledged that there is significant uncertainly in future climate models and predictions.

Under pressure from 40 skeptical members, the Royal Society has had to modify a recent report on climate change to more properly reflect the degree of uncertainly in our understanding of the climate and future predictions. See here and here for more coverage.

To quote:

The new guide says: “The size of future temperature increases and other aspects of climate change, especially at the regional scale, are still subject to uncertainty.”

The Royal Society even appears to criticize scientists who have made predictions about heat waves and rising sea levels. It now says: “There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales.”

It adds: “It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future.

“There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding.”

Basically, this is a far more balanced representation of our current state of understanding of climatic processes and hence the accuracy that can be obtained from future models of climate. Hopefully this will lead to other scientists coming forward and expressing their agreement with this more scientifically sound position.

This is a good day for science, and should lead to a more 'robust' analysis of the climate that can be more open and lead to more practical solutions in how we interact with the environment.

Related Content Tags: climate change, global warming, ipcc

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